Determinants and Forecasting of Indonesian Coffee Export Trends to the United States

Erna Haryanti; Endang Siswati; Ristani Widya Inti; Mayang Sagita

doi:10.98765/apjbet.v4i03.255

Erna Haryanti Agribusiness Study Program, Faculty of Agriculture, Universitas Wijaya Kusuma Surabaya
Endang Siswati Agribusiness Study Program, Faculty of Agriculture, Universitas Wijaya Kusuma Surabaya
Ristani Widya Inti Agribusiness Study Program, Faculty of Agriculture, Universitas Wijaya Kusuma Surabaya
Mayang Sagita Agribusiness Study Program, Faculty of Agriculture, Universitas Wijaya Kusuma Surabaya

DOI: https://doi.org/10.98765/apjbet.v4i03.255

Keywords: Coffee Export, Trend Analysis, Forecasting

Abstract

The study "Determinants and Forecasting of Indonesian Coffee Export Trends to the United States" aims to analyze the determinants affecting coffee exports and forecast the coffee export trends to the United States from 2024 to 2030. The variables used include coffee export volume, Indonesian coffee production, the Rupiah exchange rate against the U.S. Dollar, international coffee prices, and competitor coffee prices (Brazil). Secondary data in the form of time series data from 2014-2023 were obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), Directorate General of Estates, Bank Indonesia, World Bank, U.N. Comtrade, and International Coffee Organization and analyzed using multiple linear regression. The analysis yielded an R2 of 99.2%, indicating that only 0.8% of the variance is unexplained by the model. The F-test results showed that all variables studied significantly affect Indonesian coffee exports to the U.S. Partially; significant variables include international and Brazilian coffee prices, while coffee production, the Rupiah exchange rate against the Dollar, and US GDP per capita did not significantly affect exports. The coffee export trend to the U.S. from 2024 to 2030 is expected to fluctuate, increasing from 2024 to 2028 and decreasing from 2029-2030.