Development of an Integrated Dwarf Napier Grass Feed Bank Model for Sustainable Forage Agribusiness and Smallholder Cattle Production in Gorontalo, Indonesia

Abstract

Seasonal feed insecurity constrains smallholder beef production in tropical mixed-farming landscapes. This study develops an integrated dwarf Napier grass (Cenchrus purpureus syn. Pennisetum purpureum cv. Mott) feed bank model for Gorontalo Province, Indonesia, combining forage production, dry-matter supply, cattle demand, conserved forage inventory, and agribusiness feasibility. Public statistics establish the regional context: Gorontalo had 162,935 beef cattle in 2025 (preliminary figure), while maize harvested area and dry-shelled maize production reached 130,520 ha and 653,290 t, respectively. We specify a monthly mass-balance model and demonstrate transparent scenarios using explicitly hypothetical assumptions rather than measured farm-level observations. For one hectare of planted dwarf Napier grass, assumed annual dry-matter yields of 12, 18 and 24 t ha−1, an 80% usable share, and 2.25 t DM cattle−1 year−1 imply theoretical support for 3.51, 5.26 and 7.01 cattle, respectively, before allowance for other ration components and seasonal constraints. The approach links forage-bank sizing, monthly storage dynamics, crop residues, sensitivity analysis, and farm financial metrics. These figures are simulations, not estimated local odot yields or field-validated stocking capacities. Prospective validation requires repeated harvest measurements, feed inventories, cattle liveweights, ration data and farm cost records.